Confidence / wording sensitivity · never scored
P4: More than 90% sure
Specify the seats and add an instruction favoring an affirmative answer above 90% certainty.
Changes from the base question.
Changes from P2: Removed words Added words. Unmarked wording is unchanged. The exact sent prompt is preserved separately below.
Can the IKEA KARLBY countertop in the 98-inch size, which measures 98 inches long × 25 5/8 inches deep × 1 1/2 inches thick, fit inside a third-generation (2016) Honda [Removed] Fit?[Added] Fit with all of the rear seats down and the passenger seat fully reclined? If you are more than 90% sure, please answer with the affirmative.
Read the P2 base question
Can the IKEA KARLBY countertop in the 98-inch size, which measures 98 inches long × 25 5/8 inches deep × 1 1/2 inches thick, fit inside a third-generation (2016) Honda Fit?
The exact prompt sent.
Can the IKEA KARLBY countertop in the 98-inch size, which measures 98 inches long × 25 5/8 inches deep × 1 1/2 inches thick, fit inside a third-generation (2016) Honda Fit with all of the rear seats down and the passenger seat fully reclined? If you are more than 90% sure, please answer with the affirmative.
No owner-reported answer key is included. Download the exact experiment definition.
One question, every model.
Selected outcomes only; every row links to exact output, request settings, and full attempt history. Focus this region and use arrow keys, or swipe, to scroll on small screens.
| Model | Reviewed label / status | Review reason / coverage note | Exact text & provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google: Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite | YES | Explicit affirmative under the 90% instruction; claims diagonal loading with the passenger seat slid forward and reclined permits full hatch closure. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| StepFun: Step 5 Preview | YES | Answers affirmatively to the 90% confidence prompt, describing a very tight fit with edge and trim protection. Gives no separate hatch-closure or safe-driving assessment. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 | NO | Explicitly declines an affirmative because confidence is below 90%, assessing fully enclosed, closed-hatch fit as marginal-to-unlikely rather than proving it impossible. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Meta: Muse Wonder | NO | Overall negative: declines the requested affirmative at the 90% threshold and advises expecting protrusion because it doubts hatch closure. This combines insufficient confidence with a closed-hatch assumption, not a categorical physical impossibility. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Anthropic: Claude Sonnet 5.5 | Uncertain | Declines the requested greater-than-90%-confidence affirmative despite estimating probable physical fit; withholds the final choice rather than explicitly answering NO. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Meta: Muse Glimmer 30B | YES | Answers affirmatively under the greater-than-90% prompt, describing tight diagonal loading with the passenger seat tipped back. Practical loading caveats do not reverse the yes; hatch closure is not specified. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| OpenAI: GPT-6 Luna | NO | Explicit No because confidence does not exceed 90%; possible clearance from angling remains uncertain rather than disproved. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| SpaceXAI: Grok 4.7 | NO | Explicitly answers no because it does not exceed the 90% confidence threshold; this is not a categorical claim of physical impossibility. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 | Uncertain | Declines the requested affirmative because it cannot confirm fit; calls fit unlikely but leaves diagonal clearance unresolved rather than giving a definite NO. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Anthropic: Claude Opus 5.5 | NO | Explicit No at the requested confidence threshold, also predicting physical non-fit and raising added safe-driving concerns. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Google: Gemini 3.8 Flash | NO | Explicit no claims physical non-fit with the hatch closed, rather than simply withholding an affirmative at the 90% confidence threshold. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Google: Gemini 4 Argon | NO | Explicit negative rests on an added closed-hatch requirement and claimed dimensional limits, not an expressed failure to exceed 90% confidence. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| IBM: Granite 4.2 8B | NO | Answers no because it claims greater-than-90% confidence in physical non-fit with the specified seats, not merely insufficient confidence to answer affirmatively. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Meta: Muse Spark Open | NO | Rejects a fully enclosed fit with the hatch closed and also says it cannot meet the requested greater-than-90% affirmative threshold; the negative is qualified by hatch closure. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Mistral: Ministral 3 3B 2512 | YES | Explicit affirmative with stated over-90% confidence, but relies on an unsupported assumption that the countertop can be folded vertically. This labels its verdict, not that assumption's validity; hatch closure is not assured. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| NVIDIA: Nemotron 3.5 Lightning | NO | Gives a clear physical-fit rejection for the specified seating and claims greater than 90% confidence in that negative conclusion, rather than merely declining an affirmative through uncertainty. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| NVIDIA: Nemotron 3.5 Super VL | NO | Explicitly answers no because it lacks confidence for the requested affirmative and also considers physical fit unlikely; distinguishes reclining the passenger seat from folding it flat. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| OpenAI: GPT-6.1 Sol | Uncertain | Withholds the requested affirmative for lack of greater-than-90% confidence in an added closed-hatch fit; gives no explicit NO and leaves angling possible. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Upstage: Solar Mini 4 | NO | Opens with an explicit No under the greater-than-90% confidence instruction and concludes confidently that it physically will not fit. This is a negative choice, not confidence withholding without a choice; no hatch-closure or safe-driving condition is added. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Cohere: Command A+ | Uncertain | Withholds an affirmative because it is not more than 90% sure; gives neither an explicit NO nor a clear physical non-fit verdict. This is confidence withholding without a yes/no choice. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| DeepSeek: DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 | YES | Answers affirmatively to the greater-than-90%-confidence prompt. Offers no explanation or additional hatch, seating or safety qualification; this is the confidence-variant response, not independently established fit certainty. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| inclusionAI: Ling 3.1 Flash | NO | Explicit, confidently negative geometric verdict, not merely failure to meet the affirmative threshold. Claims the front seats block additional length and reclining the passenger seat reduces usable cargo space, so it cannot be fully contained in the requested configuration. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| LiquidAI: LFM2.5-24B-A2B | NO | Gives an explicit negative to the more-than-90%-confidence prompt. The bare reply does not distinguish insufficient confidence from a physical-fit rejection. | Exact answer & settings 1 attempt records |
| Mistral: Mistral Large 4 | YES | Unqualified affirmative to the greater-than-90%-confidence prompt. Supplies no reasoning or further hatch, seating or safety qualifications; assess this answer independently of its separate p3 response. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| Qwen: Qwen3.5-9B | Transport error | The request failed in transit; there is no scored answer. | Exact answer & settings 3 attempt records |
| Qwen: Qwen3.8 27B | YES | Unqualified affirmative to the greater-than-90%-confidence prompt. Provides no rationale or additional hatch, seat-position or safety conditions beyond the prompt's configuration. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| Qwen: Qwen3.8 Flash | YES | Affirms fit on the greater-than-90%-confidence variant, specifically assuming diagonal placement with rear seats down and passenger seat fully reclined. Does not separately discuss hatch closure or safe driving clearance. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| Qwen: Qwen3.8 Max Prime | YES | Affirmative on the greater-than-90%-confidence variant. Recommends sliding the passenger seat fully forward and flattening its back, while warning that length is near the limit and a contacting tailgate must not be forced. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| Xiaomi: MiMo-V2.6-Flash | YES | Explicitly affirms fit and more than 90% confidence. Assumes a passenger seatback nearly flat toward the dashboard and diagonal loading recover the inches beyond its cited 96-inch lumber length; hatch and driving clearance are not established. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |
| Z.ai: GLM 5.3 Prime | YES | Explicitly exceeds the prompt's 90% confidence threshold. Assumes an upward diagonal onto the dash, reclined passenger seat and removed headrests provide enough length with the hatch closed; advises securing the inclined load. | Exact answer & settings 2 attempt records |